Lebanese government ejects Fatah al-Islam from Nahr el-Bared Refugee camp

After a three month campaign, the Lebanese army claimed on September 3rd, to have ejected most of the members of a group calling itself Fatah al-Islam, from the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp located in the North of Lebanon. The leader of the group, Shaker al-Absi is reportedly among the dead. The conflict has many antecedents, and there are many theories as to the origins and financing of the armed faction known as Fatah al-Islam. The recent military campaign has some support within Lebanon, as well as many critics who say that the military exercise has done little to solve a broader socio-economic and regional problem. Under a 1969 agreement, security and other services inside the camps are supposed to be controlled by the Palestinian refugees themselves. A narrow evaluation at this stage of the military exercise seems to have a broader political implication, coming as it does in a month when presidential elections in Lebanon are expected to be held. The Army and General Michel Suleiman's popularity have soured, according to a report by Liz Sly, Foreign Correspondent for the Chicago Tribune [more].

The refugee camp has a long history of conflict, since it's inception by the Red Cross in 1949. A fifty year old mother is living proof of the complexity and sadness of the refugee crisis in the region:

Younis is no stranger to new places. Her family was forced to flee its home in Palestine when Israel was created in 1948. She was later chased from the Tel Zaatar refugee camp near Beirut when Lebanese Christian militiamen overran it in 1976 during Lebanon's civil war. In 1982, she fled again after Christian militiamen massacred Palestinian civilians in the Sabra refugee camp during Israel's invasion of Lebanon.

Younis said she was forced to flee Nahr el-Bared a month into the fighting after her house was hit by shellfire. The family moved in with friends, but then fled the camp altogether when their house was also hit.

"This is the fourth time we have been displaced from our home," she said, her voice cracking with sadness.

Report by The Associated Press, From the Beddawi Camp, Lebanon

[International Herald Tribune, New York Times]

Rami G. Khouri reporting for the Jordan Times:

This is the latest analytical challenge to those in the Middle East and abroad who spend their time trying to understand the political, social, and religious currents that flow through this region and drive its politics and public opinion. It is vitally important not to get this one wrong, given the high stakes involved. When faced with understanding other such challenges in recent decades, many Arabs and foreign colleagues alike have tended to focus on the surface manifestations and analytical superficialities of such phenomena--whether mainstream Arab nationalism, tribalism, and non-violent, or more marginal and deviant drug-, militia-, warlord- and gang-based cultures.

There seem to be three main theories concerning the Fatah al-Islam group.

• The US State Department has promoted the idea that al-Absi and Fatah al-Islam is backed by Syria and aims destabilise the region from within the refugee camps. One wonders however, why a Syrian backed group was led by a former detainee of Syria, and why the al-Absi ejected a pro-Syrian group that had controlled the Nahr el-Bared camp prior to November 2006.
• The second dominant theory, one which is supported by the Lebanese military, is that this is an independent group, inspired by the al Qaeda movement.
• A third theory held by pro-Syrian opposition groups is that the Lebanese government allies, including the Saudis, initially funded the Sunni militant group  to counter the influence of the Shi'ite Hezbollah movement.
  

Frankly speaking, those who have experience connecting dots, will see the similarity between the second and third theories.

The Palestinians refugee camps remain a terrible place for anyone to live. Their future and their living conditions remain unchanged, despite all of this. Even more threatening is that the camps remain a hot spot for all manner of groups, with suspicious financiers and questionable aims. The mysterious American created al Qaeda spectre being the chief label among them. Each and every mysterious group require little local support, and few seem to have more than a few hundred men and women in their ranks. The frightening reality is that all of these so called Jihad Groups have the potential to cause an international flurry of theories and a lot of bloodshed. The most dangerous spectre of all, is the prospect that the Americans will use any such conflict generated by her own inventions as she did in Iraq and Afghanistan. As it is, she is now searching frantically for another arrow to aim at Syria and Iran and another claim as she continues to build a case for war against the Islamic Republic and her allies.

Sadly the year 1948 seems to have been forgotten as the myopic analysts ignore the most obvious of all.

Related Sites:

Lebanon: Tiny Country, Big Threats - The Associated Press

Jordan Times

Syria Times (Teshreen English releases)